← Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
Water Umbra CielTier 2
at Game Nut Distorted Reflections Regional
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.8%
avg ELO +7.3 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1294–1294
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1201
Q3 1339
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
